Is 8th District in play for Manion?

By GARY WECKSELBLATT
Bucks County Courier Times

He was in Bensalem Tuesday, sent his wife to Lower Makefield last Monday, visited Montgomery County last week and Lehigh County the week before that. On Tuesday, he and his running mate will be in Quakertown.

It’s become apparent that Republican John McCain believes the Keystone State is his key to the White House.

How might McCain’s effort to win Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes impact Tom Manion’s quest to make Patrick Murphy a one-term congressman in the 8th District?

It depends whom you ask.

Having McCain campaign in Bucks “can’t but help him,” said Gwynedd-Mercy College political science professor Terry Wimmer, a self-proclaimed “lifelong Democrat.”

But Wimmer, a Perkasie native, questions the appeal McCain will have in the Philadelphia suburbs and contends “the economy going bad is the best piece of news Patrick Murphy could have gotten.”

The view is shared by Terry Madonna, the pollster from Franklin and Marshall College.

“Once the issue moved away from Iraq, which Manion had as a more compelling argument, it was going to be difficult to defeat Murphy,” he said. “With the economy the way it is and with this district shifting Democratic, it will be very tough to unseat him.”

Of 444,963 voters in Bucks County, Democrats outnumber Republicans by 11,398, an advantage that has increased significantly since the April primary.

The tide is similar in nearby Montgomery, Chester and Delaware counties.

And polls have shown Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama with a significant lead over McCain in Pennsylvania.

In a poll organized by Wimmer, Obama held a 45 percent to 30 percent edge over McCain in the four suburban counties. In Bucks, the numbers were 43 to 32.

Statewide, a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday gives Obama a 53 percent to 40 percent lead. A RealClearPolitics.com average of six state polls puts the lead at 10.5 percent.

The numbers likely would carry Murphy to a second term. But Republicans aren’t buying them.

“Every time John McCain is here our phones don’t stop ringing with support. It’s huge,” said Pat Poprik, chairwoman for McCain’s Bucks committee. “And the more people look closely at Tom Manion they can see those maverick similarities. As a business executive and Marine colonel, you know this is not someone who’s going to be told what to do in Washington.”

As for the polls, Poprik said, “If I believed in polls, President Kerry would be sitting in Washington now.”

In an e-mail, Manion’s press secretary, Karen Smith said, “We’re excited that McCain is intensifying his efforts here in Pennsylvania but not surprised. From what we’ve seen, this remains a very competitive race. The voters are telling us they aren’t convinced by poll numbers.”
click here

Those who question Obama’s support need look back no further than his 10-point loss in the state presidential primary to New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who carried 60 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties. State Democrats have been forced to explain Obama’s words at a San Francisco fundraiser about small town Pennsylvanians who “cling to guns or religion.”

And this week U.S. Rep. John Murtha referred to residents of the western part of the state he represents as racists and rednecks.

“Barack Obama has always underperformed his poll numbers. John McCain always outperforms his poll numbers,” said Charlie Gerow, a GOP strategist in Harrisburg.

Which lends credence to McCain’s contention that Pennsylvania is in play.

But is the 8th District in play for Tom Manion?

“The electorate is still very volatile,” Wimmer said. “Pennsylvania voters are notorious ticket splitters. They might vote for Manion and still give Obama a 3- to 5-percent edge in Bucks. There’s also the possibility that something could happen and voters could flip the switch against Patrick Murphy.”

Citing the 9 percent approval rating for Congress, Gerow said, “People are mad as hell at Congress but think their congressman is dandy. Tom Manion is an underdog but still in the game.”

James Carville, the popular Democratic strategist, doesn’t see it that way.

“It’s not a year a Republican is going to win this seat. … I don’t think it’s going to be close.”

Madonna agreed with Carville, saying “Republicans are really swimming against the tide here.”

But he added that in 2006 he expected Mike Fitzpatrick to hold his seat against Murphy, who narrowly lost the Bucks vote but captured the seat because of support in a sliver of Northeast Philadelphia that encompasses the 8th.

Madonna also said if pollsters always got it right this presidential race would be between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani.

“If I’m Tom Manion and I’m still standing, I’ve got a shot to pull this off with a Rocky punch,” Gerow said.

McCain, Palin to visit
Republican candidates John McCain and Sarah Palin will visit Quakertown on Tuesday.
The free event is scheduled to be held at the baseball stadium in Memorial Park, 600 W. Mill St., from 10:15 a.m. to 12:15 p.m.

For tickets:

GOP headquarters, Quakertown,215-804-1072
Victory Center, Warminster, 267-282-5235
GOP headquarters, Doylestown, 215-345-6811
More info at johnmccain.com