GOP poll rise could help Manion

By GARY WECKSELBLATT
The Intelligencer

The nation’s positive response to John McCain and Sarah Palin at last week’s Republican convention could boost the prospects of Bucks County congressional candidate Tom Manion, poll results suggest.

A USA TODAY/Gallup Poll that gives McCain a 50 percent to 46 percent lead over Democrat Barack Obama also provided a huge swing in attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.

Before the political parties held their conventions, the Democrats held a 51-to-42 percent edge on the question: “Which party’s congressional candidate would you vote for?” The Republicans now lead in that category, 50 percent to 45 percent.

And while that question is not specific to Bucks’ 8th District race between Manion, Democratic incumbent Patrick Murphy and independent Tom Lingenfelter, the Republican challenger called it a “good sign.”

“But it is still a long way until Election Day,” cautioned Manion, who was in Pittsburgh Monday filming campaign commercials. “We’re planning to get out and show the voters that we are the best choice for the issues they are concerned about; the energy crisis, the economy, health care and our national security.”

Nat Binns, press secretary for Murphy, had a different take.

“No national poll is going to change the fact that too many families here in Bucks County are struggling,” Binns said. “Pennsylvanians know we cannot afford a third Bush term and that is why Congressman Murphy has joined Democrats and Republicans in fighting for change every single day.”

The new poll, taken Friday though Sunday, was conducted among 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

Political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia told USA TODAY, “The selection of Sarah Palin has made a big difference.”

However, in an analysis of the impact of political conventions since 1960, Sabato concluded that post-convention polls signal the election’s outcome only about half the time. “You could flip a coin and be about as predictive,” he said. “It is really surprising how quickly convention memories fade.”

McCain had trailed Obama by 7 percentage points before the GOP convention in Minneapolis. The poll showed he narrowed Obama’s wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate’s top issue. Before Minneapolis, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he’s favored by 3.

“We ended the week with a new enthusiasm,” said Paul Lindsay, Pennsylvania spokesman for the McCain campaign. “People who have never volunteered for a political campaign are doing it now. There’s an excitement out there.

“We have a team of mavericks that’s ready to challenge the Washington establishment. At the same time we recognize that this is going to be a close election.”

While Obama spokeswoman Ellen Melody said, “We always knew this race would be close,” she also took a shot at national polls.

“If you go by the polls, you’d have two different candidates running for president today. Both Obama and McCain were written off this time last year,” she said.

Another poll done following the conventions by CNN/Time showed the presidential race deadlocked at 48 percent, largely unchanged from the previous week, when Obama led McCain by 49 percent to 48 percent.

The CNN/Time poll of 1,022 Americans was taken by Opinion Research Corp. and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.